The Matchday 4 clash in La Liga between Athletic and Alaves will take place on September 13 at the San Mames Stadium in Bilbao. Athletic vs. Alaves: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Athletic
The Basques finished last season strongly and have started the new one just as well. After three opening rounds, they have 9 points and, alongside Real Madrid, lead the La Liga standings. They initially defeated Sevilla (3-2) and Rayo Vallecano (1-0) at home, and in their last match, they overcame a tough Betis side 2-1. Notably, in their last 9 league matches, only Barcelona has managed to beat them (7 wins and 1 draw).
Defender Aymeric Laporte has transferred to Al-Nassr.
- At least one team failed to score in 8 of Athletic's last 10 La Liga games.
- No more than two goals were scored in 7 of the Basques' last 10 league matches.
- The club has not lost in 17 of their last 18 home La Liga matches (12 wins and 5 draws).
Predicted lineup for Athletic (4-3-3)
Unai Simon – Yuri Berchiche, Daniel Vivian, Jesus Areso, Aitor Paredes – Benat Prados, Mikel Haurregui, Oihan Sancet – Nico Williams, Alex Berenguer, Inaki Williams.
The club's head coach Ernesto Valverde will miss 4 matches due to disrespect towards the referee. Additionally, goalkeeper Alex Padilla will miss the next 3 matches due to suspension. Meanwhile, defender Yeray Alvarez is suspended for 10 months for doping. Forward Nico Williams is out for 6 weeks due to injury.
Alaves
Eduardo Coudet's side is playing in their usual rhythm. The team lost away to Betis (0-1), defeated Levante (2-1) at home, and drew with Atletico (1-1) in the last round. With 4 points, the club sits mid-table. It's also worth noting that the defeat to Sevilla is their only loss in their last 6 league matches (3 wins and 2 draws).
- No more than two goals were scored in 12 of Alaves' last 13 league games.
- The Basques have not lost in 6 of their last 8 away La Liga matches (2 wins and 4 draws).
- The team has conceded in 20 of their last 22 away league matches.
Predicted lineup for Alaves (4-4-2)
Antonio Sivera – Facundo Garces, Jony, Nahuel Tenaglia, Moussa Diarra – Antonio Blanco, Jon Guridi, Pablo Ibanez, Carles Alena – Toni Martinez, Carlos Vicente.
Referee
Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez (Spain)
Matches – 21 (La Liga, 2024/25–2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 95;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.5;
Red cards shown – 2;
Average fouls per match – 25;
Penalties – 48%.
Athletic vs. Alaves: Match Prediction
In the Basque derby, I favor the hosts. The club from Bilbao is in excellent form, having had their best start in La Liga in the 21st century, and they do not intend to stop there. Athletic is incredibly strong at home, winning 5 of their last 6 home league matches, losing only to last season's La Liga champions.
On the other hand, Alaves struggles on the road. In their last 18 away matches, the team has only managed 3 wins. Additionally, the visitors have issues converting chances, which has been evident in their head-to-head encounters. In the last 7 meetings in La Liga, Alaves has scored only once against Athletic, while the club from Bilbao has 4 wins and 3 draws in this series. Notably, at San Mames, the hosts have won with a clean sheet in the last three La Liga encounters.
My prediction – Athletic Win
* The starting lineup for each team reflects their previous match in this tournament.
